Roughly a week away from the election it is hard to believe that significant changes will be taking place, yet—here we are.
Earlier today, November 3rd, CNN released an article about Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. These known swing states have been battled over by our presidential candidates especially over the past several weeks. According to Jennifer Agiesta, Polling Director at CNN, the fight in these critical states is not over yet.
Why the changes in the polls?
There are many attributing factors seen as the cause of the shift in numbers. One of the circulating theories chalks up to bad timing. This election in particular has had many surprise factors, with the press relentlessly leaking unbecoming behavior about both candidates.
In mid-October, Trump was faltering in the polls. Coincidentally or not, this happened after a video was released of him using graphic and objectifying language about women.
With the most recent polls we’ve seen, Hillary Clinton is hurting in the polls. Likewise, this is after F.B.I Director James Comey released a letter that reignited the e-mails dispute.
In Nevada specifically, support for Hillary Clinton is declining. Voters are wary about her untrustworthy past and the resurfacing of the e-mail investigation is convincing those voters that she lacks qualities necessary of a presidential candidate.
The outcome for Nevada is a notable shift in polls. Donald Trump, who was behind by 2 points in October, now has 49% of the vote while Hillary has 43%. Third party candidate Gary Johnson is still retaining 5% of the votes in Nevada, and it is important to watch how third party voters will act on Election Day.
Regarding the other swing states, Pennsylvania has not seen a large shift, with Clinton maintaining her 4-point advantage. In Arizona, typically a Republican state, Trump is leading by 5 points.
Of all the states mentioned, Florida remains the closest race with no indication of what direction the state is leading. From October to November in Florida, support for the third party candidate is waning, and increasing for both Hillary and Trump.
When asked, “Is your mind made up about who you will vote for, or is it possible you would change your mind?” Florida voters who said they would still change their mind are at a whopping 11%.
All four of these states can still see major changes of the next 5 days. Turn your attention to how the candidates will act in these states, because November 8th all eyes will be on Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania for those crucial electoral votes.